[ad_1]
The New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will finish up Week 13 in the NFL when these two division rivals take the ‘Monday Night Football’ stage at Raymond James Stadium.
Despite both of these clubs coming into this matchup under .500, this clash between NFC South foes will have a big impact on the division race. At 5-6, Tampa Bay currently sits atop the standings, but a loss would drag their lead down to just a single game with both New Orleans and Atlanta. So while it may lack a little bit of juice when factoring in their records, this game does have the capability of shaking up the playoff picture in the NFC.
Here, we’ll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we’ll also take a look at several player props and hand in our picks for how we see this showdown unfolding.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Monday, Dec. 5 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Buccaneers -3, O/U/ 41
Line movement
Featured Game | Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
The lookahead on this line had the Buccaneers as a 6.5-point favorite. However, money has come in on the Saints, which has drastically moved this line in the other direction and has since cut it in half as of Monday morning where it sits at Bucs -3.
The pick: Buccaneers -3. This hasn’t exactly been a season to remember for Tampa Bay, which enters this matchup 3-7-1 ATS on the season. However, the Saints haven’t fared much better (4-8 ATS) and are the only team in the NFL without a cover on the road this season (0-5 ATS). Part of New Orleans’ struggles has been a subpar rushing attack. Over his last four games, Alvin Kamara has seen his rushing attempts, yards, and yards per carry average all take a sizable dip. That has coincided with a lackluster scoring ability as the club is averaging just 12.5 points per game since Week 9 (second-lowest in the NFL over that stretch). If Tampa Bay’s defense can continue to silence the Saints ground attack, that puts a lot on the shoulders of Andy Dalton, who has lost seven straight primetime games by at least eight points.
Key trend: Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a losing record.
Over/Under total
Unlike the spread, the total hasn’t moved too drastically since opening at 42.5. The biggest drop came after Week 12 when the number sunk to 40.5 by Sunday night. From there, it jockeyed around 40 and 40.5 before ticking up to 41 on Monday morning.
The pick: Under 41. Slight lean here. The Saints offense hasn’t been able to put up significant points in over a month, averaging 12.5 points per game since Week 9, and are now facing a Bucs defense that can certainly shut them down again. Meanwhile, the Under is 9-2 this season for Tampa Bay, which is the second-best Under percentage in the NFL this season. Bucs games are averaging 36.6 total points per game this year and that has fallen even lower over the last three weeks (35.3 total points per game). In all three of their divisional games this year, each game has gone Under with an average total points per game sitting at 30.
Key trend: Under is 4-1 in their last five meetings.
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -135, Under -101)
- Passing yards: 271.2 (Over +102, Under -139)
- Passing attempts: 40.5 (Over -129, Under -106)
- Longest pass completion: 36.5 (Over -113, Under -121)
- Completions: 25.5 (Over -125, Under -109)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -104, Under -131)
Brady has been loose with the football when facing the Saints over his Bucs tenure. In his six games against New Orleans over that stretch, he has 11 turnovers, so there may be a bit of value taking the Over his interceptions total at -104, despite the QB throwing just two picks on the year. Dennis Allen’s defense has also given him fits over the years and completed just 18 passes for 190 yards back in Week 2 against this unit (both season lows). With that in mind, we’ll also look at the Under on Brady’s 25.5 completions prop at -125.
Andy Dalton props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +172, Under -224)
- Passing yards: 219.5 (-117, Under -117)
- Rushing yards: 7.5 (Over -108, Under -127)
- Passing attempts: 33.5 (Over +112, Under -154)
- Longest pass completion: 33.5 (Over -121, Under -113)
- Completions: 19.5 (Over -137, Under +100)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -142, Under +104)
Given Dalton’s struggles in primetime, the Over on his interceptions prop at 0.5 is worth a look even at -142. In 26 primetime games in his career, Daltons has 24 interceptions. Meanwhile, Dalton has been unable to go over 33.5 passing attempts since Week 7, which was also the only time he’d done so this season. While there may not be much value in it, it’s hard to imagine New Orleans putting the ball in his hands 34 or more times in this game.
Player props to consider
Alvin Kamara total rushing yards: Under 48.5 (-115). Kamara’s usage out of the backfield has taken a nosedive over the last month and is averaging just nine carries per game. In his last four games, he’s been unable to go over this 48.5 total for Monday night and if his carries continue to hover around the high single digits he’d have to be extremely efficient to go over.
Chris Godwin total receiving yards: Over 67.5 (-117). Brady has thrown Godwin’s way early and often. He has double-digit targets in five of his last six games, including last week where the wideout caught 12 of his 13 throws from Brady for a season-high 110 yards. Godwin has also gone over this receiving yards total in back-to-back games coming into Monday night.
[ad_2]
Source link
