[ad_1]
U.S. businesses and consumers have been mired in discussions about whether the economy will tip into a recession — and when. According to a recent survey of corporate executives, the recession is coming sooner than later.
On Thursday, CNBC published the results of its recent CNBC CFO Council survey that compiled the sentiments of many chief financial officers across the economy. In their findings, 73% of CFOs surveyed said that they predict a recession will strike in early 2023. Not a single CFO said they believe that the economy will avoid a recession, even if it takes place after the first quarter of next year.
The state of the wider global economy weighed most heavily on the executives, particularly inflation and the spillover effects of the Federal Reserve. More than 40% said inflation is their primary concern, noting the rising food and energy prices worldwide stemming from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Recent indices have shown that core inflation has climbed higher, driven in large part by unchecked gas prices.
At the same time, efforts to tame inflation by the Federal Reserve were another factor the CFOs pointed to as a reason to expect a recession. Though about 54% expressed confidence in the central bank’s ability to manage inflation, nearly a quarter of respondents said the Fed’s increasing hawkishness is the biggest risk factor for a recession.
Since March, the Fed has executed two interest rate hikes, which included its largest single increase in over 20 years in May. Chairman Jerome Powell has promised to continue raising rates if it was deemed necessary to restore price stability.
These fears build on other survey results that captured the pessimism of American businesses. Last month, a survey by The Conference Board found that 57% of chief executive officers said they expect a recession in the coming years. Previous surveys of U.S. economists found that this pessimism was shared, though not to the same degree.
But concerns about a recession are not uniformly held and bracing oneself for the worst before it happens may carry the risk of initiating a “self-fulfilling prophecy”, said economist Robert Shiller in an interview with Fortune.
Shiller, who wrote a book on how narratives can drive economic events, agreed that there was a “much higher than normal” chance of the U.S experiencing a recession in the near-term. However, he warned that cutting back on spending in anticipation of a recession may in fact provoke one on its own.
“The fear can lead to the actuality,” warned Shiller.
[ad_2]
