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It’s been two decades since an Australian man won a grand slam, and 46 years since an Aussie man and woman both won one in the same year.
Those droughts are both very real chances of ending after Nick Kyrgios progressed into the quarter-finals of the US Open, via a stunning four-set win over world No.1 Daniil Medvedev.
Kyrgios, who is facing an allegation of common assault by a former girlfriend in an ACT court, could join Ash Barty as an Australian slam winner in this calendar year.
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He had never been past the third round of the US Open before now, but has taken advantage of his surprising run to the Wimbledon final – and a lack of Novak Djokovic, the man he lost to in London who wasn’t allowed into the United States due to his refusal to receive a Covid vaccine – continuing his impressive form after the move from grass court to hard.
Kyrgios has always been a threat on the surface. Of the 11 Tour-level finals he has made over his career, nine were on hard courts, and all seven of his championships have come there – Marseille 2016, Atlanta 2016, Tokyo 2016, Brisbane 2018, Acapulco 2019 and Washington 2019 and 2022.
The Canberran has won more matches on Tour since the French Open than any other man, including victories over Stefanos Tsitsipas (seeded fourth at the US Open), Reilly Opelka (DNP), Frances Tiafoe (22nd), Tommy Paul (29th) and now Medvedev for a second time.
Heading into the tournament seeded 23rd, Kyrgios’ chances of winning were always better than that, because the ATP rankings are currently out of whack – not just because of the pandemic, but the Wimbledon controversy which saw no ranking points handed out.
Respected tennis stats site Tennis Abstract had Kyrgios has the 10th-favourite to win the US Open coming in, giving him a 3.4 per cent chance, with Medvedev third-favourite at 13.7.
But having gotten past the reigning champion, Kyrgios is now the favourite in his side of the draw to make the final, given a 38.4 per cent chance of battling for the title.
That’s despite the fact he’ll have to face a higher seed in the semi-finals, should he beat No.27 Karen Khachanov – No.5 Casper Ruud or No.13 Matteo Berrettini would be waiting.
Kyrgios is 1-1 all-time against Ruud, winning their only meeting on hard courts earlier this year at Indian Wells, and has only played Berrettini once, on grass.
Perhaps better reflecting his talents, Kyrgios is now No.18 in the live ATP rankings and could rise into the top 10 with a title at Flushing Meadows.
Kyrgios is given a 15.1 per cent chance of winning the US Open altogether, third behind No.2 Rafael Nadal (16.7 per cent) and No.3 Carlos Alcaraz (23.1 per cent).
One of Nadal, Alcaraz or Ruud is set to take the No.1 ranking from Medvedev, depending on how far they go. Nadal will claim it guaranteed by making the final.
If Nadal is knocked out in the semis or earlier, Alcaraz or Ruud could claim No.1 by winning the tournament.
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