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The Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs will wrap up Week 5 in the NFL when these AFC West rivals square off at Arrowhead Stadium for “Monday Night Football.” Coming into the weekend, the Chiefs found themselves sitting atop the division at 3-1, while Las Vegas is on the opposite end of the spectrum, sitting in last with a 1-3 record. However, the Raiders were able to notch their first win of the Josh McDaniels era last week against Denver, so could this be a sign that they’ve turned the tide? We’ll soon find out.
Here, we’ll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we’ll also take a look at several player props and hand in our picks for how we see this showdown unfolding.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Monday, Oct. 10 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chiefs -7, O/U 51.5
Line movement
Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders
When this line first opened in the spring, the Chiefs were a 6-point favorite over last Vegas. That only ticked up a half-point in the lookahead to this matchup before moving to the full touchdown marker. That 7-point spread held through the events of Week 4.
The pick: Chiefs -7. Kansas City is coming off an impressive win over the Buccaneers and looks to be in midseason form. Defensively, the Chiefs rank fifth in the NFL in DVOA against the run, which is particularly of note when they face the Raiders in Week 5. Josh Jacobs carried the Raiders to victory last week with 177 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. I doubt he’ll be able to do that a second time, especially against this Chiefs defense. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes is making an early MVP case with his play throughout the first month and now faces a Raiders team he’s dominated throughout his career.
Mahomes is 7-1 against the Raiders, including a 3-1 record at Arrowhead Stadium. All three of those wins at home have come by 30-plus points. Kansas City is also 12-6 ATS against the Raiders under Andy Reid.
Key trend: Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in Kansas City.
Over/Under total
The total initially opened at 52.5 but sunk two points to 50.5 in the lookahead. It did creep back up to its opening number to begin the week and did climb as high as 53, before falling to 51.5 to end the week.
The pick: Over 51.5. As we highlighted above, the Chiefs have exploded offensively against this team in the past. In the season sweep of the Raiders last season, they averaged 44.5 points per game! Naturally, both of those games went over this current total. Of course, it’s hard to pencil in 40-plus points from any team on a weekly basis, but the Chiefs have the firepower to light up the scoreboard. The Raiders certainly have the pieces to also put up points with Davante Adams headlining the skill-position group, but they may not even need to do much heavy lifting if Kansas City stays relatively close to its average.
Key trend: Over is 4-0 in their last four meetings.
Patrick Mahomes props
- Passing touchdowns: 2.5 (Over +136, Under -189)
- Passing yards: 276.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
- Rushing yards: 18.5 (Over -111, Under -123)
- Longest pass completion: 36.5 (Over -123, Under -111)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +139, Under -194)
As we noted, Mahomes dominates this matchup. He has a lifetime 112.4 passer rating against the Raiders and has 22 passing touchdowns in eight starts (2.75 per game). Give that history, I’d lean on the lofty Over 2.5 passing touchdowns at +136. He’s already thrown for three-plus touchdowns twice this season, including three last week against Tampa Bay. Mahomes has also averaged 318.3 passing yards per game in his career against the Raiders and this secondary is allowing 7.5 yards per pass attempt. However, proceed with caution on that passing yards prop as Mahomes has gone under that number in three of his four games played this season.
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -131, Under -104)
- Passing yards: 272.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
- Rushing yards: 7.5 (Over -127, Under -108)
- Longest pass completion: 36.5 (Over -119, Under -115)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -111, Under -123)
Carr has struggled to find success against Kansas City, going 3-13 as a starter in his career which is tied for the worst record by a QB vs. an opponent since 2022 (min. 15 games). That said, he has played well as an underdog in the past with 31 career wins under that circumstance. He’s gone over this passing prop in two of his four games played this season. In his career, he’s averaged 242.4 passing yards per game. However, with the expectation that his team will be trailing in this game, that would suggest he’ll need to drop back and pass more often giving him more opportunities to pile up the passing yards. That has me leaning Over on his passing yards prop. The Chiefs also rank 21st against the pass in DVOA this season.
Player props to consider
Travis Kelce total receiving yards: Over 70.5 (-119). Kelce has seen a healthy target share this season, seeing no fewer than seven targets per game. His 34 targets through the first month also lead the Chiefs pass-catching unit, so he is still very much the No. 1 option for Mahomes. He’s also gone over this receiving yards mark twice this season and the Raiders present a favorable matchup. Kelce averages 76.6 receiving yards per game against the Raiders in his career and currently has the sixth-most receiving yards vs. the franchise all time.
Davante Adams total receptions: Over 7.5 (+104). This is admittedly a big number, but a fun prop to back especially at plus-money. Adams is the top dog in the Raiders passing game and should see a healthy amount of targets from Carr. This season, he’s averaging 11.8 targets per game and has gone over this prop twice. Kansas City is allowing opposing quarterback to complete 30.8 passes per game (most in the NFL) on a 70.3 completion percentage (31st). With that soft coverage and high-volume ceiling, Adams has a great shot to cash here.
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