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The Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos will put the finishing touches on Week 6 in the NFL when these AFC West rivals square up for “Monday Night Football” at SoFi Stadium. L.A. comes into this matchup 3-2 on the season, which includes back-to-back road winds over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the Broncos have dropped two straight heading into Week 6 and have largely failed to meet expectations through the first quarter of the year. These teams have also been on the opposite ends of the spectrum when looking at their records against the spread. L.A. is 4-1 ATS while Denver sits at 1-4.
Here, we’ll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we’ll also take a look at several player props and hand in our picks for how we see this showdown unfolding.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Monday, Oct. 17 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chargers -4.5, O/U 45.5
Line movement
Featured Game | Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
The initial line on this game that came out in the spring had the Chargers as a field goal favorite. That bumped up on the lookahead to -4 and moved as high as Chargers -6.5 before settling back down to -4.5 on Monday morning.
The pick: Chargers -4.5. Los Angeles has the better quarterback and the better defense at the moment, so you won’t see me fading them in this spot. L.A. has started the year out 4-1 ATS and the offense has been fine in the absence of Kennan Allen, particularly with the strong play by Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams. Meanwhile, we don’t know what Russell Wilson is going to look like after getting an injection in his throwing shoulder after Denver’s Week 5 matchup with the Colts. The Broncos offense has been horrid to begin the season and it’s not showing any real signs of picking up, so laying the 4.5 points feels safe here.
Key trend: Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games
Over/Under total
The total debuted at 47 and only ticked up a half-point to 47.5 on the lookahead, but has since come down rather considerably. After Week 5, this number dropped two points and now stands at 45.5.
The pick: Under 45.5. Denver is averaging just 15 points per game this season. They’ve gone north of 20 points just once and have scored 16 or fewer points in four of their five games played. With a banged-up Wilson, it’s hard to imagine they improve much here. Meanwhile, the Broncos defense has been great at keeping opponents out of the end zone, allowing just 16 points per game this season. Justin Herbert will be a difficult task to shut down, but that combination of Denver’s poor offense and strong defense should do wonders for keeping this total below the 45.5 threshold.
Key trend: Under is 8-1 in their last nine meetings in Los Angeles.
Russell Wilson props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +129, Under -179)
- Passing yards: 223.5 (Over -119, Under -115)
- Rushing yards: 13.5 (Over -121, Under -113)
- Passing attempts: 32.5 (Over -111, Under -123)
- Longest pass completion: 37.5 (Over -121, Under -113)
- Completions: 19.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -142, Under +104)
Wilson has started to run the ball a bit more over the last few weeks. He’s averaging 4.7 attempts per game over the last three weeks and has gone over his current rushing total for this game in all of those contests. Given that he may be limited passing the ball due to his shoulder injury, it’s possible he leans even more on his legs to move the chains. The Chargers do have six interceptions through five weeks heading into Week 6, so taking the over on Wilson coughing the ball up also isn’t the worst way to play his props on Monday night.
Justin Herbert props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -189, Under +136)
- Passing yards: 266.5 (Over -123, Under -111)
- Rushing yards: 9.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
- Passing attempts: 35.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
- Longest pass completion: 36.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
- Completions: 23.5 (Over -133, Under -103)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -103, Under -133)
Given that we like the Under for this game, there is some value in Herbert Under 1.5 passing touchdowns at +136. He’s thrown for one touchdown twice this season, both coming over the last three weeks. The Broncos secondary has allowed just three passing touchdowns all season, so this is a pretty stout group. Austin Ekeler could also be a vulture in this aspect of his game as he has three rushing touchdowns over the last two games. Despite facing a tough secondary, Herbert’s completion prop does feel a bit low at 23.5. The only time he failed to go over this number this season was last week in Cleveland.
Player props to consider
Austin Ekeler total receptions: Over 4.5 (+114). With Kennan Allen doubtful for this game, Ekeler will get even more of the target share from Herbert. He’s gone over this receptions prop three times this season, catching 93.9% of his targets and averaging 6.6 targets per game. Having this at plus money is a fun ticket to hold heading into Monday night.
Melvin Gordon total receiving yards: Over 14.5 (-117). Gordon has been a reliable option when given an opportunity in the passing game. So far this season, he’s hauled in 11 of his 13 targets and averages roughly nine yards per reception. He’s gone over this receiving yards prop in two of the last three weeks and it’s low enough that we may only need one look for Wilson to go over.
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