A pair of star players are given better than a 50% chance to win the MVP award ahead of the second half of the season. Shohei Ohtani is the odds-on AL MVP favorite at the All-Star break, and Paul Goldschmidt owns that distinction for the NL MVP award.
Ohtani has -105 AL MVP odds at BetMGM. For the NL MVP award, Goldschmidt leads the way with -110 odds.
Aaron Judge had been the AL MVP favorite for much of the year. A slump over the last month has dropped the New York Yankees’ outfielder to second with +140 odds. Yordan Alvarez is a distant third with +1100 AL MVP odds.
The race isn’t considered to be nearly as tight in the NL. Manny Machado’s +550 MVP odds are the second-best in the NL. Pete Alonso is third at +700, followed by Mookie Betts at +1100.
Odds to win AL MVP at @BetMGM
Shohei Ohtani -105
Aaron Judge +140
Yordan Alvarez +1100
Mike Trout +2000
Rafael Devers +2000
Jose Ramirez +3500
All other players +6600 or longer odds
Highest Ticket%: Ohtani 17%
Highest Handle%: Ohtani 30%
Biggest Liability: Judge
— John Ewing _ (@johnewing) July 19, 2022
Goldschmidt has easily been the NL’s best hitter. The St. Louis Cardinals’ first baseman leads the league in batting average (.330), on-base percentage (.414) and slugging percentage (.590). Goldschmidt’s 20 home runs are good for sixth in the NL, and his 70 RBI rank third.
The race isn’t as clear in the AL. Alvarez has been the league’s best hitter, posting an MLB-high 1.058 OPS. The slugger, however, has spent much of his time at DH for the Houston Astros.
Judge leads all of baseball with 33 home runs and plays for a team that is running away with a highly competitive division. Ohtani hasn’t been nearly as productive at the plate, but his contributions on offense and on the mound give him the best chance to win the award.
After winning the 2021 AL MVP award, Ohtani is pitching like a Cy Young candidate. The two-way star has a 2.38 ERA and 123 strikeouts in 87 innings pitched. As a hitter, Ohtani has 19 home runs and .835 OPS.
If Ohtani goes through a pitching slump in the second half, his team’s lack of success could potentially cost him the award. The Los Angeles Angels are 14 games under .500 and 20.5 games behind the Astros in the AL West.
The Cardinals are only a half-game out of first place in the NL Central.