According to a recent forecast for the upcoming midterm elections, Republicans may win 230 seats in the House this November.
The CBS News tracker analysis races and measures public opinion in a district-by-district model that predicts who will take control of the House come November. If this proves correct, means the Democrats will occupy 205 seats in the House after the midterms.
There are still questions as to whether the national polling is accurate.
“Indeed, relying too much on national polling can be misleading, because the party that wins the most votes nationally doesn’t necessarily win the most seats,” CBS noted.
In 2016, national polling proved to be more accurate than state polling.
Democrats hoped that the conservative Supreme Court’s recent decisions and Republicans’ attack on abortion rights and strict gun control views would help sway the midterms in their favor.
Inflation and a possible recession have given Republicans hope that they will win more House seats.
Democrats have employed a strategy of running ads that prop up the most extreme far-right conservative Republican candidates in primary races. Many hope the strategy would push Republicans to vote for a Democrat when they otherwise would not.
The tracker has an error margin of plus or minus 12 seats. That means the Republicans could win a slight majority of 218 seats or a stronger majority of 242 seats.