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Open-source analysis of satellite images Thursday showed increased activity with warships and submarines at the Sevastopol base in Crimea, which indicate that Moscow may be planning a larger operation in its war with Ukraine.
While ingenious Ukrainian drone attacks and Western-supplied firepower have successfully pushed the dominant Russian Black Sea Fleet to be largely ineffective in the war, open source analysis, including examination of Sentinel-2 satellite footage from the European Space Agency, showed several warships outside the harbor. This includes a Kilo-class submarine that appeared to be returning to base, according to a report by defense analyst H.I. Sutton in Naval News.
It is unclear why the Russian Navy has suddenly increased activity at the Sevastopol base. Sutton points out that it could be a reaction to the narrative building up around the failure of the Black Sea Fleet in the war, or a response to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Washington. However, the defense analyst adds that Ukraine could see more Kalibr missile strikes in the coming days.
Significantly, Ukrainian authorities had on Dec. 7 warned that 13 Russian warships are currently deployed in the Black Sea, among them a submarine missile carrier armed with Kalibr cruise missiles.
According to Sutton, Russia has four of its improved Kilo-class submarines, which have been used to launch Kalibr cruise missiles against Ukrainian targets, currently operating in the Black Sea region.
While these submarines operate from the Russian-occupied Sevastopol naval base in Crimea for missile strikes, they move to the safety of the Russian base at Novorossiysk when not active.
With the sinking of the flagship cruiser, Moskva in April, the Russian navy’s Black Sea Fleet has largely played to a dormant role, only carrying out missile strikes on Ukraine without venturing out too far away from the safety of their harbors.
Given the fear of Western-supplied long-range Ukrainian fire, Moscow has reportedly been forced to even move some of its warships and submarines from the naval base at Sevastopol in Crimea to Krasnodar Krai in mainland Russia.
However, since the Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) drone attacks on Oct. 29 targeting naval vessels in the Sevastopol base, home to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, Moscow has been compelled to reshape its naval operations in the region, playing a very low-key role in the ongoing war.
Sutton pointed out that since the Oct. 29 drone attack, Moscow has been extremely vigilant with its warships being escorted by fast boats and helicopters. However, despite its present low-key role, Russia’s naval forces still have a critical advantage in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.
Although ships and submarines have come and gone from Sevastopol, Sutton points out that the level and frequency of activity captured in the Sentinel 2 satellite images of the location at 10:47 a.m. local time Thursday, has not been seen in recent weeks.
One of the ships observed to be sailing north appears to be a repair ship which may be important to support combat operations, the defense analyst noted, adding that another ship leaving Sevastopol, heading towards a river in northern Crimea, may be an indication of Moscow planning a larger operation.
As reported on Tuesday, Sutton suggested three different scenarios that could emerge in the coming months forcing the Black Sea Fleet back into action. Moscow may be anticipating a Ukrainian advance down south into Crimea from Kherson, meanwhile, Moldova has also expressed fears of a possible Russian invasion in early 2023.
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