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Jordan Poole is a budding star. He’s 23 years old, and in what was, effectively, his first NBA season of record, he put up 18.5 points and four assists a night and led the league in free-throw percentage. Poole’s defense remains a postseason question mark, same as Tyler Herro’s in Miami, but hyper-creators and deadeye shooters like this don’t grow on trees.
The Warriors know this, and on Saturday ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that Poole has agreed to a four-year, $140 million extension to keep him in the Bay through at least 2027.
Golden State’s salary sheet could already choke a hippo. Now add Poole’s money to the ledger. Next summer, Andrew Wiggins is a free agent, and Draymond Green could be if he doesn’t opt into the final year of his current deal, which he’s not expected to do. The following summer, Klay Thompson will be up for a new contract.
To this point, all reporting has indicated the Warriors do not intend to pay all these guys. The tax hit is just too punitive. Hundreds of millions, quite literally. Look at this white-board workup from ESPN’s salary cap wizard Bobby Marks, in which you can plainly see a nearly $300 million difference, including taxes, between the Warriors paying both Wiggins and Green (either at his opt-in number or a new deal) next summer, or choosing between them.
Those numbers aren’t exact. Perhaps Green would re-sign at a lower annual rate than his 27.5M opt-in number. Perhaps Wiggins would take less to stay in a cushy situation as well. But neither is likely to take significantly less. Green has already stated that he wants a max extension. Wiggins has earned something near that. Either way, again, it’s going to be hundreds of millions in taxes to keep both.
Short of Joe Lacob and company raising their financial ceiling to over half a billion, this is all leading toward what stands to be a very difficult and emotional decision. Wiggins or Green? If it comes down to it, the smart money would go to Wiggins, who, despite being in the middle of what already seems to have been a long career, will still be just 28 years old next summer.
Green, on the other hand, will turn 33 in March, and when his game does start to decline, it figures to do so steeply. The end of his next contract could be a pretty heavy anchor. Depending on how he looks this season, Green may not find another team willing to pay him what he wants next summer, and returning to Golden State at a pride-swallowing number might be his only choice. But I doubt it. If Jordan Pooles don’t grow on trees, neither do Draymond Greens, even at an advanced age.
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So, could this be the last season we see Green in a Warriors uniform? It’s certainly possible. Personally, I would call it likely. If it weren’t for the emotions attached to such a decision, which, given Green’s impact on and connection to this franchise, will be a legitimate factor in whatever decision they make, I would call it a near certainty.
I don’t think the Warriors would consider trading him during this season to avoid losing him for nothing next summer, mostly because they are going to want to take another run at a championship and there’s almost no way they could bring back a player that will help them in that short-term pursuit more than Green.
But long term, there’s a business decision to be made here. It doesn’t have anything to do with Green socking Poole in the face, and it doesn’t have anything to do with what Green has meant to this franchise. The past is the past. The NBA is a futures market. Green will go down as one of the greatest players in Warriors history, the second-most important figure in this dynasty next to Curry, and he’s not done yet. The Warriors are again a favorite to win it all. But all good things come to an end, and as it pertains to Green’s Warriors career, that time may be coming sooner than later.
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